2023

Demographic Projections

Name: Demographic Projections
Code: SOC2424L
6 ECTS
Duration: 15 weeks/156 hours
Scientific Area: Sociology

Teaching languages: Portuguese
Languages of tutoring support: Portuguese
Regime de Frequência: Presencial

Sustainable Development Goals

Learning Goals

The discussion of the diverse methods and techniques of demographic projections at national, regional and local level, according with the data characteristics and the established aims. To present a new probabilistic approach that allows us a more comprehensive view of the population dynamics and its impact in the future of society.
The design of scenarios in uncertainty context will be pinpointed.

Contents

1. Demographic current trends. Fertility, mortality and migration
2. Macrodemography principles. Life-table models. Reference populations. General principles of the stable population dynamics.
3. Demographic projections. Estimates, projections and forecast. Data sources and databases for demographic projections. Risk measurement in demographic analysis: probabilistic projections. Population projections methods. Regional projections.
4. Scenarios and projections. Application of the scenario construction methods and populations projection
6. Demographic projections evaluation

Teaching Methods

Oral presentation and debates (3 hours each), comparative analysis and discussion. Debates within the research agenda of the master course.
Evaluation methods: oral presentation (15%), participation (10%), written essay on population projection (75%).

Teaching Staff

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