2024
Prospective Sociology
Name: Prospective Sociology
Code: SOC12053M
6 ECTS
Duration: 15 weeks/156 hours
Scientific Area:
Sociology
Teaching languages: Portuguese
Languages of tutoring support: Portuguese
Sustainable Development Goals
Learning Goals
Through initial theoretical approach and a practical methodology that does not neglect the theoreticalconceptual
content of it is intended that at the end of the course, students are able to:
1. To evaluate the specificity, the usefulness and limits of foresight for sociological studies of organizations
and territories;
2. To characterize the organizational diagnosis and diagnosis-oriented territorial prospective;
3. To evaluate the usefulness and epistemological limits of the methods of the French School Prospective,
within the framework of Sociology;
4. To prepare, process and analyze data with various software and prospective analysis (scenario method of
the French School).
content of it is intended that at the end of the course, students are able to:
1. To evaluate the specificity, the usefulness and limits of foresight for sociological studies of organizations
and territories;
2. To characterize the organizational diagnosis and diagnosis-oriented territorial prospective;
3. To evaluate the usefulness and epistemological limits of the methods of the French School Prospective,
within the framework of Sociology;
4. To prepare, process and analyze data with various software and prospective analysis (scenario method of
the French School).
Contents
1. Sociology, Future Studies and Forecasting:
• Fundamentals and concepts of foresight.
• Prospective Sociology and public policy.
• Diagnosis prospective organizations and territories.
• Limits of Foresight.
2. Prospective methods:
• Types of methods.
• The methods of the French School (La Prospective): The scenario planning.
3. The operationalization of 'scenario method of the French School:
• To identify key questions for the future, thanks to structural analysis (MICMAC Method).
• To analyse the interplay of actors (MACTOR Method).
• To explore the field of possibilities with the morphological analysis (MORPHOL Method).
• To identify the most likely scenarios as well as the various risks of rupture (SMIC PROB-EXPERT Method).
• To identify and evaluate strategic options with the (MULTIPOL Method).
• Fundamentals and concepts of foresight.
• Prospective Sociology and public policy.
• Diagnosis prospective organizations and territories.
• Limits of Foresight.
2. Prospective methods:
• Types of methods.
• The methods of the French School (La Prospective): The scenario planning.
3. The operationalization of 'scenario method of the French School:
• To identify key questions for the future, thanks to structural analysis (MICMAC Method).
• To analyse the interplay of actors (MACTOR Method).
• To explore the field of possibilities with the morphological analysis (MORPHOL Method).
• To identify the most likely scenarios as well as the various risks of rupture (SMIC PROB-EXPERT Method).
• To identify and evaluate strategic options with the (MULTIPOL Method).
Teaching Methods
Topics 1 and 2 are based on collective sessions and are predominantly theoretical. Topic 3, which will occupy
about 1/4 of workload of contact classes are highly practical oriented. However, even in the more theoretical
sessions, it is expected the use of analysis and discussion of texts or prospective studies, and / or promotion
of some of the sessions by students from texts.Collective sessions from Topic 3 are held in the classroom and
focus on exploiting software specific for each of the methods discussed. Students also undertake independent
study, conducted individually or in groups. An e-learning platform will be used to facilitate the sharing of
educational resources and distance communication. According to the Internal Regulation School, students can
choose one of the following assessment process:Continuous assessment: exercises / group work in dyads
(90% of the final mark) and an individual written test (10%); Evaluation by exam: written examination (100%).
about 1/4 of workload of contact classes are highly practical oriented. However, even in the more theoretical
sessions, it is expected the use of analysis and discussion of texts or prospective studies, and / or promotion
of some of the sessions by students from texts.Collective sessions from Topic 3 are held in the classroom and
focus on exploiting software specific for each of the methods discussed. Students also undertake independent
study, conducted individually or in groups. An e-learning platform will be used to facilitate the sharing of
educational resources and distance communication. According to the Internal Regulation School, students can
choose one of the following assessment process:Continuous assessment: exercises / group work in dyads
(90% of the final mark) and an individual written test (10%); Evaluation by exam: written examination (100%).
Teaching Staff (2022/2023 )
- José Manuel Leal Saragoça [responsible]
Certificações
