LISMOT - Storng ground motion in the lower tagus valley

The LTCB is a complex tectonic depression where up to 2000 m of Cenozoic sediments have been preserved. Throughout its history this area has been struck by several earthquakes which produced important material damage and loss of lives (1344, 1531. 1755, 1969 and 1909 earthquakes), with estimated magnitudes ranging from 6 to 7. These earthquakes have caused severe damage and casualties in the area. Since this region is the most highly populated seismic region in Portugal, it is expected that an earthquake of similar magnitude to others that have occurred in the past will cause an enormous destruction and casualties. To contribute to an improved assessment of the seismic hazard in the Lower Tagus Basin we propose the introduction of methods on the prediction of ground motion produced by moderate to large earthquakes in this area. The method employed to estimate the seismic ground motion is based on a combination between deterministic and stochastic methods.