LTV - SourceMod4PSHA Construção de um modelo de fontes sísmicas para a região do Vale do inferior Tejo.

Cofinanciado por:
Designação do projecto | LTV - SourceMod4PSHA Construção de um modelo de fontes sísmicas para a região do Vale do inferior Tejo.
Código do projecto | PTDC/CTE-GIX/101852/2008
Objetivo principal |

Região de intervenção |

Entidade beneficiária |

Data de aprovação | 16-09-2009
Data de inicio | 01-04-2010
Data de conclusão | 01-04-2013

Custo total elegível |
Apoio financeiro da União Europeia |
Apoio financeiro público nacional/regional |

Objetivos, atividades e resultados esperados/atingidos


We want to construct and design ways to use a source model in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for a slowly 

deforming region with rather rare but damaging events. We aim for a composite object (catalogues, faults or seismic zones, 

physics-based probability density functions (pdf) for recurrence of each magnitude) with its uncertainties as a possible alternative 

to logic trees with branches weighted by "expert panels", and mathematically-based only renewal models, as found in the 


PSHA is of great societal importance for a large city such as Lisbon and its surrounding region. The project will propose a seismicity model ready for use in aPSHA for the LVT, and will identify the inputs the estimation of PSHA in the LTV are most sensitive to. The results of this research will be useful for any region of the world displaying similar seismic activity, and similar tectonic patterns.


We will publish and present our work in International Journals and Conferences, in particular the World Conference in Earthquake Engineering to be held in Lisbon in 2012. 


We also plan two types of outreach actions in the framework of this project, and more particularly during 

Task 1 on the historical seismicity and the gathering of the seismicity catalogue. They have to do with the transmission of individual and collective memory and experience to the younger generation, and with raising the awareness of the population towards seismic hazard. 

1-  with schools of the LTV region. 

2-  with the “Lars dos Idosos” in the LTV as well