LTV - SourceMod4PSHA Construção de um modelo de fontes sísmicas para a região do Vale do inferior Tejo.
Objetivos, atividades e resultados esperados/atingidos
We want to construct and design ways to use a source model in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for a slowly
deforming region with rather rare but damaging events. We aim for a composite object (catalogues, faults or seismic zones,
physics-based probability density functions (pdf) for recurrence of each magnitude) with its uncertainties as a possible alternative
to logic trees with branches weighted by "expert panels", and mathematically-based only renewal models, as found in the
PSHA is of great societal importance for a large city such as Lisbon and its surrounding region. The project will propose a seismicity model ready for use in aPSHA for the LVT, and will identify the inputs the estimation of PSHA in the LTV are most sensitive to. The results of this research will be useful for any region of the world displaying similar seismic activity, and similar tectonic patterns.
We will publish and present our work in International Journals and Conferences, in particular the World Conference in Earthquake Engineering to be held in Lisbon in 2012.
We also plan two types of outreach actions in the framework of this project, and more particularly during
Task 1 on the historical seismicity and the gathering of the seismicity catalogue. They have to do with the transmission of individual and collective memory and experience to the younger generation, and with raising the awareness of the population towards seismic hazard.
1- with schools of the LTV region.
2- with the “Lars dos Idosos” in the LTV as well